This Weekend's Battlefield
The weekend of March 28-30 features one major wide opening and a stacked holdover field that has generated over $600M combined domestic revenue.
The Opening: Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man
Genre: Crime/Drama | Rating: 7.4 TMDB (early) | Popularity: 291 (2nd highest in theaters)
The TV-to-film adaptation is the big question mark this weekend. Our database shows the median opening for prestige TV adaptations sits at just $18M, though outliers like Downton Abbey ($31M) prove the ceiling exists for the right IP.
Our Prediction
| Metric | Low | Best Estimate | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening Weekend | $22M | $35M | $52M |
| Total Domestic | $65M | $95M | $140M |
| Total Worldwide | $150M | $220M | $320M |
Confidence: 58% (Medium)
- Bull case ($52M+): Massive international fanbase, Cillian Murphy just won an Oscar for Oppenheimer, event cinema framing
- Bear case ($22M): TV-to-film fatigue, R-rated crime genre skews older, wall of holdovers
- Base case ($35M): Comparable to Downton Abbey adjusted for 2026 ticket prices, with Murphy post-Oscar premium
The Holdovers
Project Hail Mary (Week 2)
Cumulative: $162.4M | Rating: 8.2 | Expected 55% drop: $28-35M
Hoppers (Week 3+)
Cumulative: $248.6M | Rating: 7.6 | Animation legs (3.8x): $12-16M
Scream 7
Cumulative: $194.7M | 4.3x ROI | Expected: $6-9M
Full Weekend Forecast
| # | Film | Weekend Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man | $35M |
| 2 | Project Hail Mary | $31M |
| 3 | Hoppers | $14M |
| 4 | Scream 7 | $7M |
| 5 | Dhurandhar | $5M |
Predictions generated by the Hollywood Metrics prediction engine, informed by analysis of 20,000+ films across 100 years of box office data.
