The Scoreboard
| # | Film | WW Gross | Budget | ROI | TMDB Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Resident Evil | $196.5M | $75.0M | 162% | 7.311 |
| 2 | Insidious: Out of the Further | $165.0M | $18.0M | 817% | 6.5 |
| 3 | Coyote vs. Acme | $79.8M | $72.0M | 11% | 7.559 |
| 4 | Practical Magic 2 | $46.0M | $75.0M | -39% | 6.153 |
| 5 | Hope | $41.2M | $46.0M | -10% | 7.3 |
| 6 | The Dog Stars | $37.4M | $110.0M | -66% | 6.598 |
| 7 | Mutiny | $20.8M | $40.0M | -48% | 7.192 |
| 8 | Spa Weekend | $10.2M | $20.0M | -49% | 6.5 |
| 9 | Fall 2: Deadpoint | $9.3M | $3.0M | 209% | 6.2 |
| 10 | Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma | $8.5M | $8.0M | 7% |
The Winners
If you enjoy making money, horror remains the only genre that actually loves you back. Insidious: Out of the Further is this week's absolute heavyweight champion. With a lean $18.0M budget and a massive $165.0M global haul, it has secured a staggering 817% ROI. Our database indicates that this follows the classic Blumhouse-style efficiency model. Keep the costs low and the jump scares frequent. It is currently outperforming almost every other mid-budget genre entry this year.
Coming in with a very healthy 209% ROI is Fall 2: Deadpoint. It only cost $3.0M to produce. While $9.3M in revenue looks like pocket change compared to the top of the charts, the math does not lie. It is a massive success for its scale. Finally, the Resident Evil reboot has proven there is still plenty of life in the T-virus. A 162% ROI on a $75.0M budget is a rare feat for a big-budget horror-action hybrid. Its solid 7.311 TMDB rating suggests that fans actually liked what they saw, which is a nice change of pace for this franchise.
The Losers
The smell of burning capital is particularly strong this week. The Dog Stars is a certified disaster. Taking a $110.0M swing on a post-apocalyptic Science Fiction thriller and returning only $37.4M results in a painful -66% ROI. High-concept sci-fi continues to be the most dangerous gamble in Hollywood. Unless you have a built-in fanbase or a transformative hook, these budgets are simply unsustainable.
Meanwhile, nostalgia could not save Practical Magic 2. Despite the returning star power, a $75.0M budget was far too high for a romance-fantasy sequel that failed to capture the broader zeitgeist. It is sitting at a -39% ROI. We also see Mutiny and Spa Weekend struggling to find air. Both films are hovering around the -50% ROI mark. Our model suggests that mid-budget comedies and thrillers are currently being cannibalized by high-quality streaming offerings, leaving little room for theatrical underperformers.
The One to Watch
The most fascinating data point this week is Coyote vs. Acme. It holds the highest TMDB rating in the top ten at 7.559. Despite the critical acclaim and audience love, it has only scraped together an 11% ROI. In the world of theatrical accounting, 11% is essentially "limping." However, movies with these kinds of sentiment scores often have incredible legs. If it can hold its screens through next weekend, it might actually move from the "gold" breakeven category into a legitimate winner. It is a rare case where the quality of the film is significantly outpacing its initial commercial velocity.
The Takeaway
The data this week reinforces a brutal reality for the industry. Low-cost horror is the only safe bet left. With a total combined revenue of $0.61B across the top ten, the market is healthy, but the distribution of wealth is skewed. The "Winners" list is dominated by films with budgets under $20.0M or established horror IP. Conversely, the "Losers" list is a graveyard of $40.0M to $110.0M investments. Our database suggests that unless you are making a massive event film, the $75.0M budget range has become a "death zone" where marketing and production costs are nearly impossible to recoup. Control your costs or the box office will do it for you.
