Our model · Reflections
HOW THE CALLS HELD UP
Side by side — what we predicted, what actually happened
Hit rate
0%
0 of 7 openings
Mean error
168%
n = 7
Closest callerror -1%
OTHER MOMMY
We said —. It came in at $27.8M.
Our smallest miss in the sample. Predicted band sat right on the actual.
Biggest misserror +991%
SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY
We said —. It came in at $360.1M.
Our largest gap between forecast and actual. We surface this not to bury it.
Street Fighter
Weekend of 2026-10-16
We predicted
—
best guess $28M
Actual
$30.8M
error +10%
NAILED IT
Other Mommy
Weekend of 2026-10-09
We predicted
—
best guess $28M
Actual
$27.8M
error -1%
NAILED IT
Digger
Weekend of 2026-10-02
We predicted
—
best guess $28M
Actual
$8.0M
error -71%
OVERESTIMATED
Resident Evil
Weekend of 2026-09-18
We predicted
—
best guess $36M
Actual
$60.2M
error +67%
UNDERESTIMATED
Practical Magic 2
Weekend of 2026-09-11
We predicted
—
best guess $28M
Actual
$30.0M
error +7%
NAILED IT
The End of Oak Street
Weekend of 2026-08-14
We predicted
—
best guess $28M
Actual
$21.0M
error -25%
CLOSE (UNDER)
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Weekend of 2026-07-31
We predicted
—
best guess $33M
Actual
$360.1M
error +991%
UNDERESTIMATED
Project Hail Mary
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$85M – $115M
best guess $98M
Actual
Pending
PENDING72% conf
Wuthering Heights
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$12M – $20M
best guess $15M
Actual
Pending
PENDING55% conf
Scream 7
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$8M – $14M
best guess $10M
Actual
Pending
PENDING65% conf
Hoppers
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$15M – $25M
best guess $18M
Actual
Pending
PENDING60% conf
GOAT
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$10M – $18M
best guess $13M
Actual
Pending
PENDING58% conf
What we count. The hit-rate above only counts opening-weekend predictions where the actual is in. Tracking entries (cumulative worldwide totals mid-run) sit on a different scale and would inflate or deflate the number depending on the week, so we leave them out. Misses are listed by name on purpose — the best way to keep a forecast honest is to publish where it broke.