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OverviewBox OfficePredictionsReflectionsNews Wire
Tuesday-morning post-mortems

REFLECTIONS

The week-after post-mortem on every prediction we shipped. Honest about hits, prominent about misses.

Our model · Reflections

HOW THE CALLS HELD UP

Side by side — what we predicted, what actually happened

Hit rate
0%
0 of 6 openings
Mean error
335%
n = 6
Closest callerror +44%
PROJECT HAIL MARY
We said $85M – $115M. It came in at $141.0M.
Our smallest miss in the sample. Predicted band sat right on the actual.
Biggest misserror +526%
PROJECT HAIL MARY
We said $85M – $115M. It came in at $613.4M.
Our largest gap between forecast and actual. We surface this not to bury it.
Project Hail Mary
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$85M – $115M
best guess $98M
Actual
Pending
PENDING72% conf
Wuthering Heights
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$12M – $20M
best guess $15M
Actual
Pending
PENDING55% conf
Scream 7
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$8M – $14M
best guess $10M
Actual
Pending
PENDING65% conf
Hoppers
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$15M – $25M
best guess $18M
Actual
Pending
PENDING60% conf
GOAT
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$10M – $18M
best guess $13M
Actual
Pending
PENDING58% conf
Project Hail Mary
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$85M – $115M
best guess $98M
Actual
Pending
PENDING72% conf
Wuthering Heights
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$12M – $20M
best guess $15M
Actual
Pending
PENDING55% conf
Scream 7
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$8M – $14M
best guess $10M
Actual
Pending
PENDING65% conf
Hoppers
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$15M – $25M
best guess $18M
Actual
Pending
PENDING60% conf
GOAT
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$10M – $18M
best guess $13M
Actual
Pending
PENDING58% conf
Project Hail Mary
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$85M – $115M
best guess $98M
Actual
Pending
PENDING72% conf
Wuthering Heights
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$12M – $20M
best guess $15M
Actual
Pending
PENDING55% conf
What we count. The hit-rate above only counts opening-weekend predictions where the actual is in. Tracking entries (cumulative worldwide totals mid-run) sit on a different scale and would inflate or deflate the number depending on the week, so we leave them out. Misses are listed by name on purpose — the best way to keep a forecast honest is to publish where it broke.
Predictions, same room ›Weekend ledger ›‹ Back to Intelligence