Our model · Reflections
HOW THE CALLS HELD UP
Side by side — what we predicted, what actually happened
Hit rate
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no data
Mean error
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no data
Project Hail Mary
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$85M – $115M
best guess $98M
Actual
Pending
PENDING72% conf
Wuthering Heights
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$12M – $20M
best guess $15M
Actual
Pending
PENDING55% conf
Scream 7
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$8M – $14M
best guess $10M
Actual
Pending
PENDING65% conf
Hoppers
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$15M – $25M
best guess $18M
Actual
Pending
PENDING60% conf
GOAT
Weekend of March 19-21, 2026
We predicted
$10M – $18M
best guess $13M
Actual
Pending
PENDING58% conf
What we count. The hit-rate above only counts opening-weekend predictions where the actual is in. Tracking entries (cumulative worldwide totals mid-run) sit on a different scale and would inflate or deflate the number depending on the week, so we leave them out. Misses are listed by name on purpose — the best way to keep a forecast honest is to publish where it broke.